BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR

BELFAST - Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik, Tamar Thomas
CODA - Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi, Patrick Wachsberger
DON'T LOOK UP - Adam McKay, Kevin Messick
DRIVE MY CAR - Teruhisa Yamamoto
DUNE - Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve, Cale Boyter
KING RICHARD - Tim White, Trevor White, Will Smith
LICORICE PIZZA - Sean Muraphy, Adam Sommer, Paul Thomas Anderson
NIGHTMARE ALLEY - Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale, Bradley Cooper
THE POWER OF THE DOG - Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning, Roger Frappier
WEST SIDE STORY - Steven Spielberg, Kristie Macoscko Krieger 

Because of the L.A. theaters closing down due to the pandemic in 2020 (and my unwillingness to watch brand new movies on the small screen), I had only seen two nominated films by the time last year's nominations rolled around - Emma and Onward - but this year, having been to theaters pretty much non-stop since May 1, 2021, I managed to see most of the nominated films and I should be able to catch up with the others in the next week or two. 

This year the rules were changed so that instead of five to ten nominees there would definitely be ten, if one is curious how Nightmare Alley, which got neither great reviews not did much box-office (though I enjoyed it quite a bit, and it definitely earned its craft nominations) made the list.

Expanding the category has continued to finally give science-fiction films a semi-regular place on the list, as both Don't Look Up and Dune both made the cut this year. If you're on the fence about whether Don't Look Up can truly be called science-fiction, the post-end-credits sequence pretty securely places it in that genre. 

Belfast and The Power of the Dog seem the most likely contenders for the award. I think Licorice Pizza deserves it, but then I'm not an Academy member (shocking, I know).

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

JAVIER BARDEM - Being the Ricardos
BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH - The Power of the Dog
ANDREW GARFIELD - tick, tick...BOOM!
WILL SMITH - King Richard
DENZEL WASHINGTON - The Tragedy of Macbeth

Will Smith seems the most likely winner, especially as the entire film seems designed to win him an Oscar, though Cumberbatch is a possibility.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

JESSICA CHASTAIN - The Eyes of Tammy Faye
OLIVIA COLMAN - The Lost Daughter
PENELOPE CRUZ - Parallel Mothers
NICOLE KIDMAN - Being the Ricardos
KRISTEN STEWART - Spencer

A few months ago, Kristen Stewart and Lady Gaga were considered the front-runners, but I don't know if that means Stewart is now considered likely for the award. Colman, Cruz and Kidman are past winners, while I don't know if Chastain could win for something as little seen as Tammy Faye (though members aren't probably aware enough of The 355 to hold it against her).

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

CIARAN HINDS - Belfast
TROY KOTSUR - CODA
JESSE PLEMONS - The Power of the Dog
J.K. SIMMONS - Being the Ricardos
KODI SMIT-McPHEE - The Power of the Dog

Smit-McPhee is considered the front runner. I'm especially happy about the first-time nominations for Hinds and Plemons (with luck, Plemons in particular will have many more), and the second nomination for the great Simmons.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

JESSIE BUCKLEY - The Lost Daughter
ARIANA DEBOSE - West Side Story
JUDI DENCH - Belfast
KIRSTEN DUNST - The Power of the Dog
AUNJANUE ELLIS - King Richard

I think Dunst is the most likely winner, unless the voters feel that since it's been 24 years since Dench last won she deserves another one. Ellis was the best thing about King Richard so a win isn't totally unthinkable.

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING

BELFAST - Kenneth Branagh
DRIVE MY CAR - Ryusuke Hamaguchi
LICORICE PIZZA - Paul Thomas Anderson
THE POWER OF THE DOG - Jane Campion
WEST SIDE STORY - Steven Spielberg

I wouldn't be surprised if Branagh wins Picture and Campion wins Directing, but it could go the other way around (sort of like Moonlight winning Picture while La La Land wins Directing). Unless Drive My Car turns out to be this year's Parasite - it may be epic-length but it's not as dark and tonally challenging as Bong's film.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

BELFAST - Kenneth Branagh
DON'T LOOK UP - Screenplay by Adam McKay, Story by Adam McKay & David Sirota
KING RICHARD - Zach Baylin
LICORICE PIZZA - Paul Thomas Anderson
THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD - Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier

This one is a toss-up, but Belfast is probably the most likely winner. I'd love for Worst Person to win, or even Licorice Pizza, but at this point anything-but-Don't-Look-Up is fine with me.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

CODA - Sian Heder
DRIVE MY CAR - Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe
DUNE - Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth
THE LOST DAUGHTER - Maggie Gyllenhaal
THE POWER OF THE DOG - Jane Campion

Probably either Drive My Car or The Power of the Dog. Both are literature-based, which helps, though there are often surprises in this category (Precious, anyone? You may not be aware that it was actually based on the novel Push by Sapphire...)

ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY

DUNE - Greig Fraser
NIGHTMARE ALLEY - Dan Laustsen
THE POWER OF THE DOG - Ari Wegner
THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH - Bruno Delbonnel
WEST SIDE STORY - Janusz Kaminski

The scenery of Power of the Dog will probably win over the other worlds of Dune, but as always it's a strong category, because unlike today's film composers, current cinematographers are given free rein to do amazing work. This is Kaminksi's sixth nomination for a Spielberg film; he's done all of the director's features for nearly 30 years, beginning with Schindler's List, and won two Oscars, so apparently it's working out OK.

ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING

DON'T LOOK UP - Hank Corwin
DUNE - Joe Walker
KING RICHARD - Pamela Martin
THE POWER OF THE DOG - Peter Sciberras
tick, tick...BOOM! - Myron Kerstein, Andrew Weisblum

This one often goes to the film with the most editing, so it could easily go to the tiresomely frenetic (yet overlong) Don't Look Up.

ACHIEVEMENT IN PRODUCTION DESIGN

DUNE - Patrice Vermette; Zsuzsanna Sips
NIGHTMARE ALLEY - Tamara Deverell; Shane Vieau
THE POWER OF THE DOG - Grant Major; Amber Richards
THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH - Stefan Dechant; Nancy Haigh
WEST SIDE STORY - Adam Stockhausen; Rena DeAngelo

Probably Dune.

ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN

CRUELLA - Jenny Beavan
CYRANO - Massimo Cantini Parrini, Jacqueline Durran
DUNE - Jacqueline West, Robert Morgan
NIGHTMARE ALLEY - Luis Sequeira
WEST SIDE STORY - Paul Tazewell

Without the standard costumes-for-royalty nominee that usually wins the award, this is tricky to predict. Cyrano has the closest to the kind of costumes they usually go for (and Durran previously won for Anna Karenina and the 2019 Little Women), while Cruella is literally about costume design, and Dune has the fantasy element going for it. My guess is Cyrano.

ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

COMING 2 AMERICA - Mike Marino, Stacey Morris, Carla Farmer
CRUELLA - Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne, Julia Vernon
DUNE - Donald Mowat, Love Larson, Eva von Bahr
THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE - Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, Justin Raleigh
HOUSE OF GUCCI - Goran Lundstrom, Anna Carin Lock, Frederic Aspiras

I really have no idea about this one. Eyes of Tammy Faye and House of Gucci both featured pretty startling transformations (of Jessica Chastain and Jared Leto, respectively) so it could easily be one of these (while voting members might not even realize it was Stellan Skarsgard under those prosthetics in Dune).

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES (ORIGINAL SCORE)

DON'T LOOK UP - Nicholas Britell
DUNE - Hans Zimmer
ENCANTO - Germaine Franco
PARALLEL MOTHERS - Alberto Iglesias
THE POWER OF THE DOG - Jonny Greenwood

Probably The Power of the Dog, unless the members feel that since it's been 27 years since Zimmer's last Oscar, he's due for another one.

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES (ORIGINAL SONG)

"BE ALIVE" - King Richard - Music and Lyric by DIXSON and Beyonce Knowles-Carter
"DOS ORUGUITAS" - Encanto - Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda
"DOWN TO JOY" - Belfast - Music and Lyric by Van Morrison
"NO TIME TO DIE" - No Time to Die - Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell
"SOMEHOW YOU DO" - Four Good Days - Music and Lyric by Diane Warren 

I'm hoping No Time to Die will prove to be the third Bond song in a row to win the award; the fact that it won the Grammy even before the film was even released might help, and people seem to like it a lot more than "Writing's on the Wall". While Diane Warren is famously oft-nominated but yet to win, this is still unlikely to be her year. How many of you had even heard of Four Good Days? How many of you still haven't heard of it?

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND

BELFAST - Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather, Niv Adiri
DUNE - Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, Ron Bartlett
NO TIME TO DIE - Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey, Mark Taylor
THE POWER OF THE DOG - Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie, Tara Webb
WEST SIDE STORY - Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson, Shawn Murphy

Dune has the sci-fi fantasy advantage, No Time to Die is probably the loudest, while West Side Story is the only musical in the group.

ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS

DUNE - Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, Gerd Nefzer
FREE GUY - Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis, Dan Sudick
NO TIME TO DIE - Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner, Chris Corbould
SHANG-CHI AND THE LEGEND OF THE TEN RINGS - Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker, Dan Oliver
SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME - Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein, Dan Sudick

Dune seems the likely winner. No Time to Die is the first 007 film to get a visual effects nomination since Moonraker in 1979; Thunderball won in the category in 1965.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR

ENCANTO - Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino, Clark Spencer
FLEE - Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellstrom, Signe Byrge Sorensen, Charlotte De La Gournerie
LUCA - Enrico Casarosa, Andrea Warren
THE MITCHELLS VS. THE MACHINES - Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Kurt Albrecht
RAYA AND THE LAST DRAGON - Don Hall, Carlos Lopez Estrada, Osnat Surer, Peter Del Vecho

Encanto seems the likely winner, though the fact Flee is the first film to be nominated for Animated, Documentary and International (aka Foreign) in the same year could give it an edge.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

AFFAIRS OF THE ART - Joanna Quinn, Les Mills
BESTIA - Hugo Covarrubias, Tevo Diaz
BOXBALLET - Anton Dyakov
ROBIN ROBIN - Dan Ojari, Mikey Please
THE WINDSHIELD WIPER - Alberto Mielgo, Leo Sanchez

A very dark, un-family-friendly batch this year, especially Bestia. Aardman's stop-motion Robin Robin is the only all-ages-admitted nominee and the likely winner, though its theme of "that idiot who always screws everything up is awesome!" is one I have never enjoyed.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

ALA KACHUU - TAKE AND RUN - Maria Brendle, Nadine Luchinger
THE DRESS - Tadeusz Lysiak, Maciej Slesicki
THE LONG GOODBYE - Aneil Maria, Riz Ahmed
ON MY MIND - Martin Strange-Hansen, Kim Magnusson
PLEASE HOLD - K.D. Davila, Levn Menekse

This is always my least favorite category. The Dress is by far the strongest of the group, while I actively disliked The Long Goodbye (no relation to the Philip Marlowe mystery).

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

AUDIBLE - Matt Ogens, Geoff McLean
LEAD ME HOME - Pedro Kos, John Shenk
THE QUEEN OF BASKETBALL - Ben Proudfoot
THREE SONGS FOR BENAZIR - Elizabeth Mirzaei, Gulistan Mirzaei
WHEN WE WERE BULLIES - Jay Rosenblatt

Audible is the strongest entry of the group, though The Queen of Basketball has strong emotional appeal, and the homelesness depicted in Lead Me Home is as topical as ever.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

ASCENSION - Jessica Kingdomn, Kira Simon-Kennedy, Nathan Truesdell
ATTICA - Stanley Nelson, Traci A. Curry
FLEE - Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellstrom, Signe Byrge Sorenson, Charlotte De la Gournerie
SUMMER OF SOUL (...OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED) - Ahmir "Questlove" Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent, David Dinerstein
WRITING WITH FIRE - Rintu Thomas, Sushmit Ghosh 

I've only seen Flee and Summer of Soul so far, both were first-rate and definitely more high-profile than the other three, which received little if any theatrical release (which hasn't mattered quite so much in the last two years, for obvious reasons)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR

DRIVE MY CAR - Japan
FLEE - Denmark
THE HAND OF GOD - Italy
LUNANA: A YAK IN THE CLASSROOM - Bhutan
THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD - Norway

Given its nominations for Picture, Directing and Screenplay, it will be a shocker if Drive My Car doesn't win in this category, though I'd love the award to go to The Worst Person in the World.