In a normal year, which 2020 was anything but, I would have posted these predictions -- traditionally based largely on my own big-screen viewing of all the major and minor contenders -- at the end of last year. However, theaters in the Los Angeles area have been closed since March 16, 2020, so I was only able to see 33 of the 366 films which have been declared Oscar-eligible for this year’s awards (including films released up until the end of February 2021). So these predictions are based largely on reviews, on awards from other organizations, and even more sheer guesswork than usual. As with so many things relating to 2020, it’s best to put an asterisk next to it. The nominations will be announced this coming Monday, March 15 (coincidentally, the one-year anniversary of the last time I saw a movie in a theater. Sigh.)
This is a strange Oscar year for so many reasons. Because the releases of so many potential box-office attractions were postponed (not that Black Widow or No Time to Die were likely to be major Oscar contenders), the emphasis this year more than ever has been on smaller, more “serious” films. One doesn’t necessarily think of Best Picture contenders as box-office blockbusters, but the last several decades have seen many of the biggest hits nominated in that category (if rarely winning), including Jaws, Star Wars, Heaven Can Wait, Raiders of the Lost Ark, E.T., Tootsie, Fatal Attraction, Ghost, Beauty and the Beast, Jerry Maguire, Titanic, The Sixth Sense, The Lord of the Rings trilogy, Avatar, Inception, Gravity, The Martian, Black Panther and Joker. Similarly, many Best Picture winners that seemed unlikely box-office contenders proved to be genuine box-office smashes, including Platoon, Driving Miss Daisy, A Beautiful Mind, Slumdog Millionaire and The King’s Speech. What’s really rare is a year like 1984, where none of the Best Picture nominees (Amadeus, The Killing Fields, A Passage to India, Places in the Heart and A Soldier’s Story) did particularly impressive business.
BEST PICTURE
1. NOMADLAND
2. THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
3. MANK
4. ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI…
5. MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
6. MINARI
7. SOUND OF METAL
8. SOUL
9. NEWS OF THE WORLD
10. PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
RIZ AHMED – Sound of Metal
CHADWICK BOSEMAN – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
ANTHONY HOPKINS – The Father
MADS MIKKELSEN – Another Round
GARY OLDMAN – Mank
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
VIOLA DAVIS – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
VANESSA KIRBY – Pieces of a Woman
SOPHIA LOREN – The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti A Se)
FRANCES McDORMAND – Nomadland
CAREY MULLIGAN – Promising Young Woman
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
SACHA BARON COHEN – The Trial of the Chicago 7
CHADWICK BOSEMAN – Da 5 Bloods
DANIEL KALUUYA – Judas and the Black Messiah
DELROY LINDO – Da 5 Bloods
LESLIE ODOM JR. – One Night in Miami…
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
ELLEN BURSTYN – Pieces of a Woman
GLENN CLOSE – Hillbilly Elegy
OLIVIA COLMAN – The Father
YUH-JUNG YOUN – Minari
HELENA ZENGEL – News of the World
DIRECTING
DAVID FINCHER - Mank
REGINA KING - One Night in Miami…
DARIUS MARDER - Sound of Metal
GEORGE C. WOLFE - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
CHLOE ZHAO - Nomadland
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
MANK
MINARI
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
SOUL
THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
THE FATHER
MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
NEWS OF THE WORLD
NOMADLAND
ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI…
CINEMATOGRAPHY
MANK
MULAN
NEWS OF THE WORLD
NOMADLAND
TENET
FILM EDITING
MANK
NEWS OF THE WORLD
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
TENET
THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
PRODUCTION DESIGN
MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
MANK
THE MIDNIGHT SKY
MULAN
TENET
COSTUME DESIGN
EMMA
THE GLORIAS
MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
MANK
MULAN
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
MANK – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
THE MIDNIGHT SKY – Alexandre Desplat
MINARI – Emile Mosseri
NEWS OF THE WORLD – James Newton Howard
SOUL – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
“FIGHT FOR YOU” – Judas and the Black Messiah - Gabriella Wilson, Dernst Emile II, Tiara Thomas
“HEAR MY VOICE” – The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Daniel Pemberton, Celeste Waite
“LO SI` (SEEN)” – The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti A Se) – Diane Warren, Laura Pausini, Niccolo Agliardi
“SHOW ME YOUR SOUL” - Mr. Soul! – Robert Glasper, Muhammad Ayers, Lalah Hathaway, Melissa Haizlip
“SPEAK NOW” - One Night in Miami... – Leslie Odom Jr., Sam Ashworth
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
EMMA
HILLBILLY ELEGY
MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
MANK
PINOCCHIO
VISUAL EFFECTS
MANK
THE MIDNIGHT SKY
MULAN
THE ONE AND ONLY IVAN
TENET
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
ONWARD
OVER THE MOON
A SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE: FARMAGEDDON
SOUL
WOLFWALKERS
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