Would be surprised if BABYLON scores a Best Picture nomination. More likely they'll feel obliged to acknowledge AVATAR's box office clout.
Can't see McDonagh missing out on a nomination for Directing (nor should he, IMHO -- BANSHEES was my best film of the year). All of Chazelle, Inarritu and Chan-Wook seem unlikely to me; Kosinski, the Daniels and Luhrmann are better bets.
THE WOMAN KING might get nods under the inclusivity quota but EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE conveniently soaks up a lot of that energy -- Yeoh for Best Actress. (I found EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE a mite tiresome and aesthetically ugly.)
Carter Burwell will get a nomination and could win partly for the Bulgarian love-chant he ddn't compose.
THE MENU was the most curiously underrated film of the year, superior to TRIANGLE OF SADNESS in every way. Would love to see it get some belated recognition (and maybe it will if enough screeners are sent out).
I just watched Amsterdam and was very disappointed in the movie but the SOUNDTRACK I cannot stop listening to it! I have noticed a number of movies from this past year in a similar situation where the movie was adequate but the soundtrack was impeccable.
Any sequel is considered an adaptation because it is based on a previous work (the original movie). There have occasionally been questionable exceptions, such as the Original Screenplay nomination for The Barbarian Invasions, which reunited the characters from The Decline of the American Empire.