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| This is a comments thread about Blog Post: Oscar Predictions and Other End of 2016 Lists by Scott Bettencourt |
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We can agree to disagree over Amy Adams movies.
NOCTURNAL ANIMALS was high on my best list. ARRIVAL, on the other hand ... that's the one about the aliens from a super-advanced civilization capable of interstellar travel, gravity bending, and making their ships dissolve into nothingness (so probably time travel as well) ... who need human help for some reason ... but nevertheless spend months poised over Earth, coming perilously close to the first intergalactic war ... all the time unable to communicate until Amy Adams works out their squid-ink alphabet?
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Your inclusion of Simon Helberg in 'Florence Foster Jenkins' was a very nice touch. He completely stole the film from it's two leading stars. Every time he was onscreen, I was either laughing out loud or smiling from ear to ear. I had never seen him before in anything and, no, I've never even seen a single episode of 'Big Bang Theory'. I mentioned Simon's performance to someone at work and they said, 'oh he's on Big Bang Theory', so now I have this show in my Netflix queue. Mr. Helberg just walked off with the film, tucked away into his arms!
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sorry, double post
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Sorry, double post
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I'm not certain why Hidden Figures is not getting more attention - it's better than almost every film on these lists - in fact, did Scott actually see it? All three of its leading actresses should be up for Oscars and so should the screenplay and it should be up for best picture.
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To address these posts in reverse order:
-I did see Hidden Figures. I saw it followed by a panel including Henson, Spencer, the director and his co-writer. It was one of 247 new films I saw in 2016, including 197 that were Oscar eligible. I never publish my predictions until I’ve seen all the films of the year I intend to (except, on rare occasions, those films whose eligibility releases are virtually impossible for me to see, like Cake and Two Days, One Night a couple years ago, but because I hadn’t seen them I didn’t include them in my predictions).
I enjoyed Hidden Figures well enough. It had a great true story to tell, which gave it a big advantage over most movies. It even made me cry, but then a lot of movies do, since I tend to reserve my crying for the dark of the movie theater (it didn’t make me cry nearly as much as Christine, A Monster Calls or Lion, though).
Reviews have been mixed but positive but I haven’t seen it getting a lot of attention. I did have it predicted for Spencer (for Supporting) and for Song.
Why, how many new movies did YOU see in 2016? Enough to authoritatively declare that Hidden Figures was better than most of them?
-Helberg was really wonderful in Florence Foster Jenkins, and I’d love for him to get a nomination, especially since apart from Mahershala Ali, the Supporting Actor field seems wide open this year. I’ve never watched Big Bang Theory so I only know him from A Serious Man; similarly, I’ve only seen Jim Parsons in random movies like The Big Year and Wish I Was Here, so it’s a little ironic that the multi-Emmy winner gets such a thankless part in Hidden Figures while Helberg gets the opportunity to steal a Meryl Streep film.
On the other hand, Hugh Grant could easily steal Helberg’s Supporting slot for the same film. Can you believe it was 21 years ago that the infamous prostitute arrest took place (in my neighborhood, no less)? Man, I feel old.
-re: Bacharach’s Po – there’s a chance that this or the Legrand/Bergman song from Max Rose could get in, though after the Bruce Broughton incident a few years back, I wonder if Music Branch members are especially leery of nominating a song from a film none of them are likely to have seen.
I also wonder if the interpolation of songs from the 60s Jungle Book into Debney’s score will hurt his nomination chances.
re: The BFG. Williams isn’t always a shoo-in for a nomination, especially since the film was such a surprise flop. Have we already forgotten The Terminal?
I agree that La La Land is a shoo-in for the Original Score Oscar. I have no idea how anyone could call the Jackie score “bland,” especially while singing the praises of John Debney, who isn’t exactly an innovative, risk-taking composer.
-Yoga Hosers. Oy. I’m usually a Kevin Smith fan, Zack and Miri Make a Porno being my favorite, but this one was really a chore to sit through, especially those little Instagram bits. I actually walked by Smith and his daughter Harley on Christmas day, right after I saw Jackie. I let them pass undisturbed.
-I have to admit that I dislike Nocturnal Animals more than it is actually bad, but it’s one of those movies where the more I think about it the more I really dislike it. (And you may easily be right about all of Arrival’s illogicalities, if that’s a word. I still choose to think it’s first rate)
In its favor – Michael Shannon, Abel Korzeniowski (much as I’m hoping the film is ignored on nominations morning, I would not begrudge a nod for either of those two talented gentlemen), and the film’s genuinely surprising final moments.
One moment in Nocturnal Animals sums up my negative feelings for Mr. Ford as a director – why does the tragic discovery in the desert look not so much like a brutal crime scene as like an art installation?
I could accept this as being from Amy Adams’ perspective, since everything we’re seeing in the story-within-the-story is her reading of the manuscript and she does come from the art world, but nothing else in that story is designed that way. What should have been the most emotionally wrenching moment in the film was just…aesthetic.
One more thing – both the ending of Single Man and the ending of the story-within-the-story of Nocturnal Animals seem to me like they should be accompanied by the “sad trombone.”
-Normally I don’t consult the other awards and critics lists before making my own list, but some of the categories (especially Supporting Actor) seemed so unpredictable (or underpopulated) that I really needed to check other opinions, especially to see if Jeff Bridges was being considered as Supporting for Hell or High Water. The inclusion of Dev Patel was solely based on the other awards, as I don’t tend to think of him as Supporting in that film, since plays the main character for the majority of the film’s running time.
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One other thing that bothered me about ARRIVAL. The film is framed by an ethically questionable decision made by Amy Adams (which, btw, is compounded by Renner's equally questionable decision to vamoose once he finds out about it). It's intriguing enough ... but what's its thematic connection to the rest of the film? Nothing that I can see. Any scenario where someone can see the future would have sufficed, and a more intimate one would better have served the material.
The argument re art installation cinematography is an interesting one. At one extreme you have the likes of Michael Bay, who lights the hell out of everything for no good reason and gives you diabetes. On the other hand, I would argue that something like A MONSTER CALLS is far too dreary-looking for its own good. Maybe it's meant to accentuate the grief and enhance the fantasy scenes by contrast. Maybe it works better that way. And maybe it's just dreary. (Ditto the score.)
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I expect HIDDEN FIGURES and MOONLIGHT to each get 87 nominations, just so the Academy can say (after last year) 'See, we ain't racist, YOU ARE!!!' 
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There are two names left off of your lists for Best Actor and Best Actress, although you do mention one as a personal favorite in italics. The Acting Branch almost always seems to do it's 'homework' and usually will include a surprise name or two that, when initially announced, will draw surprised applause from those attending the early morning announcements. I'd take out Tom Hanks name and replace it with VIGGO MORTENSEN for 'Captain Fantastic', a film he's promoted fiercely as a personal labor of love. (Also, he's excellent in it). And recalling Charlotte Rampling's inclusion last year made me think back to the early 70's when I first saw her onscreen, and for her 'body of work'. This brings me to ISABELLE HUPPERT who I can remember seeing back in the mid-70's in 'The Lacemaker' (the first film I remember seeing her in.) I haven't seen 'Elle' yet, but I'm sure her fellow Actresses are aware of her wonderful 'body of work' as well as this current film, and will award her her first nomination.
(Separately, back to James, yes it's extremely cold here in Montana with a -13 degrees tonight and tomorrow night!)
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I expect HIDDEN FIGURES and MOONLIGHT to each get 87 nominations, just so the Academy can say (after last year) 'See, we ain't racist, YOU ARE!!!'
Months ago I'd joked to friends that the Academy was reserving Best Picture slots for The Birth of a Nation, Southside With You and Loving for just that reason.
Since Washington, Ali and especially Davis are all plausible winners this year, I don't think they have to worry.
I would happily have Mortensen and especially Huppert get nominations this year. The Foreign Language committee didn't even shortlist Elle, which may hurt its Oscar chances in other categories, but i'm still hoping she takes the surprising-but-deserved Marion Cotillard/Charlotte Rampling slot.
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No love for Hacksaw Ridge? I thought it excellent and a worthy contender for Best Picture, Director, Actor, and Score.
I must declare that the movie was filmed not far from where I live, and I had friends in it as extras (three of which are actually noticed). However, bias to friends and locale aside, I was still engrossed with the film, and thought that Mel's mojo had returned.
I really liked Hacksaw Ridge, and if nothing else it was an honest attempt at dealing with Christian principles. I know people who think it could be a contender -- it's hard to say, given the generally mixed reviews and the baggage its director brings (even the trailer touted "from the director of Braveheart" without spotlighting his internationally famous name).
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